Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2015 Oct 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 14-Oct 16 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 14-Oct 16 2015 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 00-03UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 03-06UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 06-09UT 4 4 4 09-12UT 3 3 3 12-15UT 3 3 3 15-18UT 4 4 4 18-21UT 4 4 4 21-00UT 4 4 4 Rationale: Periods of G1-Minor storm intervals are likely all three days of the forecast period (14-16 Oct). This activity is due to effects from a geoeffective, positive polarity CH HSS. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2015 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2015 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 R1-R2 30% 30% 40% R3 or greater 1% 1% 5% Rationale: An increasing chance for (R1 to R2 - Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts is likely during the next three days (14-16 Oct). This increasing chance is due to the potential for significant flare activity from new Region 2434 along with old Region 2422 (S17, L=103), expected to rotate onto the disk late on 15 Oct. On their previous transits across the disk, new Region 2434 produced four R1-Minor events while old Region 2422 produced a total of 16 R1-Minor and two R2-Moderate events.
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304
SOHO EIT 284
Mauna Loa Solar Image
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.
Sun Spot Number Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression.
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
VHF and HF Band Conditions
Credits:Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Space Weather links:
3-Day Forecast of Solar and Geophysical Activity
Space Weather Overview
Real-Time Solar Wind
Space Weather Advisory Outlooks
Space Weather Forecast Disussions
Space Weather Alerts, Watches and Warnings
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)
The Very Latest SOHO Images
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